Which Of The Odds (Opening And Closing Odds) Is A True Reflection Of Reality?


A detailed article about the two types of odds (opening and closing odds) and the benefits associated with them.

Are opening odds more accurate than closing odds?

opening closing odds, betting odds

Odds are usually mathematically derived after taking into consideration factors like the statistical records of the two teams, historical performances, the current form, public sentiments and other similar information.

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Odds are not entirely objective and the published odds also depend on the bookmaker’s projection of profit.

The very first odd that is seen when a bookmaker opens its market to the public is known as the opening odds while the odd modified some moments before the match starts is known as the closing odds.

While the changes are barely noticeable on some occasions, once in a while, there is a significant margin between these two types of odds.

Why does the odds change

There is no rule against maintaining the opening odds throughout the duration of the match. However, bookmakers change their odds for either of the following reasons:

  • Information Update
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If there is a change in any of the major variable that will affect either of the team’s performance, for example, an injury to a very important player prior to the start of the match, this can necessitate a change in the odds toward the beginning of the match.

  • The value of bet placed

Since all bookmakers are in the betting industry to make a profit, when too many punters have placed bets on a particular team deemed to be the favourite, in other to strike a balance and prepare for the possibility of all those punters winning, they sometimes adjust the odds to reflect the new reality.

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The advantages inherent in the two type of odds

First of all, it is important for us to understand that while odds are capable of reflecting the stronger and weaker team in a match, they are usually not 100% objective. As such, we can’t really declare one as more accurate than the other.

However, they both have their advantages depending on how proficient you are at recognizing value.

For instance, in a situation where the opening odds backed Team A has the favourite to win a match with little odds but one of their key players is unable to appear in the starting line-up due to an injury or sickness, betting with the opening odds might be all the chance you have to acquire a big win if you take this opportunity into good use.

Sometimes the closing odds are not a reflection of fact or tactical changes that might affect a team’s performance, your ability to see through the bookmakers’ tricks geared towards making a profit from every game will go a long way in making or marring your decision.

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Conclusion

From the above, we could deduce that neither of the two types of odds discussed here is solely derived from an objective analysis. There are other factors the bookies put into consideration before changing the game’s odds.

However, the closing odds are usually the closest odd to reality since some of the doubtful variables might have been successfully eliminated right before the kick-off the match.

To benefit from either of these odds, you need to be an ardent follower of the sports or follow a reputable analyst with an eye for value.

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